Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -1600 CLE +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -10.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -9.4 (+3.6) | 132.4 (-5.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -6.3 (+6.7) | 133.3 (-6.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -5.8 (+7.2) | 134.2 (-7.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -6.0 (+7.0) | 132.7 (-5.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-0 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#120) | -1.6 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#252) | 0.65 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#195) | 0.68 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#213) | 0.511 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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