Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | CONN -240 UNC +196 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -4.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.7 (+7.3) | 153.4 (+9.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.2 (+7.8) | 154.1 (+8.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.6 (+8.4) | 153.3 (+9.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.7 (+8.3) | 153.6 (+9.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 17-3 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#8) | 12.5 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#15) | 1.60 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.81 (#13) | 3.04 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#13) | 0.593 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 36.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.