Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -18.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | WASH -2000 MTST +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +24 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -18.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -12.2 (+11.8) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -14.3 (+9.7) | 143.4 (+2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -15.9 (+8.1) | 144.0 (+2.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -14.6 (+9.4) | 144.1 (+1.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#38) | -2.2 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#117) | -0.98 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#87) | -1.06 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#62) | 0.430 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 16.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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