Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | BOIS -225 UNT +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -4.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -2.8 (+2.2) | 128.6 (+4.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -3.2 (+1.8) | 131.9 (+1.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -2.5 (+2.5) | 130.6 (+2.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -3.6 (+1.4) | 129.0 (+4.0) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#123) | 4.5 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#136) | -0.50 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#120) | -0.18 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#52) | 0.454 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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