They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Charles E. Smith Center · December 6, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GW -11.5 Away covered
O/U 144.0 Over
Money GW -650 / NAVY +460
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual GW +2 156 Won
Massey GW -17.1 (-15.1) — —
Massey Totals — 138.7 (+17.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 100% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GW -9.2 (-7.2) 140.2 (+15.8) 82% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GW -11.8 (-9.8) 138.9 (+17.1) 86% ✓
Baseline ML GW -11.9 (-9.9) 139.3 (+16.7) 83% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GW -11.4 (-9.4) 141.0 (+15.0) 85% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 25, 2020 NAVY 78 – 71 GW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW NAVY
Overall 15-17 13-18
Conference 4-14 8-10
Home 12-6 10-5
Away 1-9 3-13
Neutral 2-2 0-0
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.4 65.6
Avg Pts Against 77.4 67.8
Massey 6.0 (#84) -5.4 (#270)
Bradley-Terry 1.98 (#47) -2.47 (#327)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.97 (#39) -3.41 (#328)
RPI 0.628 (#30) 0.332 (#358)
Shooting & Four Factors GW NAVY
FG% 46.0% 37.4%
3PT% 38.3% 23.5%
REB / G 40.0 36.2
OREB / G 7.9 12.5
AST / TO 0.91 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 41.9%
TOV% 17.9% 18.5%
ORB% 23.1% 32.2%
FT Rate 26.2% 22.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 15.0% 24.0%
DRB% 75.1% 71.4%
Opp FT Rate 12.6% 27.7%

Game Analysis

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