Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | KSU +122 VILL -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -2.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -3.1 (-2.1) | 146.7 (-3.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -3.9 (-2.9) | 146.8 (-3.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -3.9 (-2.9) | 148.3 (-5.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -2.8 (-1.8) | 147.2 (-4.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#100) | 8.4 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#93) | 0.94 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#123) | 1.79 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#116) | 0.578 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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