Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | BAY -900 HALL +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -17.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -13.1 (+4.9) | 150.9 (-12.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -15.1 (+2.9) | 152.1 (-14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -16.2 (+1.8) | 152.2 (-14.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -16.1 (+1.9) | 153.4 (-15.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-4 |
| Away | 4-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#7) | 6.6 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#13) | 0.64 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.52 (#18) | 1.03 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#44) | 0.538 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 46.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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