Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -450 IDST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -0.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -1.4 (+10.6) | 133.5 (+12.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.0 (+11.0) | 135.9 (+10.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.9 (+11.1) | 136.0 (+10.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.9 (+11.1) | 133.5 (+12.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#302) | -1.3 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#289) | -1.10 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#295) | -1.26 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#252) | 0.414 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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