Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | MISS -1600 MSM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -11.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -11.3 (-2.3) | 137.0 (+8.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -9.1 (-0.1) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -9.0 (+0.0) | 137.0 (+8.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -7.9 (+1.1) | 136.7 (+8.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#151) | -4.2 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#8) | -2.59 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#14) | -3.27 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#21) | 0.332 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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