Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–12 on winners spread MAE 8.1 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Texas +0.9 134.2 53% 85–78 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Arkansas +24.6 131.3 99% 58–65 ✓
Milwaukee @ Chattanooga +7.1 144.2 74% 76–88 ✓
Lafayette @ Princeton +16.1 124.3 93% 58–69 ✓
South Carolina State @ Winthrop +9.3 167.5 80% 67–81 ✓
Charleston @ Presbyterian -11.9 143.6 14% 67–62 ✓
UMBC @ Columbia -2.4 151.0 41% 73–66 ✓
East Carolina @ UNC Wilmington +7.6 133.2 76% 61–74 ✓
American University @ Mount St. Mary's +5.3 133.8 68% 69–61 ✗
Saint Louis @ Iona +9.5 154.8 81% 62–84 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Temple +14.3 152.1 90% 60–70 ✓
Bucknell @ La Salle +0.2 139.1 51% 72–82 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ George Mason +14.4 135.4 90% 54–67 ✓
Wagner @ Fordham +10.1 135.0 82% 59–72 ✓
Vermont @ Dartmouth +1.9 144.7 57% 68–52 ✗
High Point @ Furman +9.3 157.9 80% 85–82 ✗
Coppin State @ NC State +21.0 166.9 97% 72–94 ✓
Georgia @ Georgia Tech +6.8 119.9 73% 77–79 ✓
New Hampshire @ Boston College +11.9 122.1 86% 74–71 ✗
Hartford @ St. Francis Brooklyn +12.8 131.1 88% 50–68 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Wofford +11.6 140.8 85% 61–71 ✓
North Florida @ Houston +34.5 131.7 100% 42–76 ✓
James Madison @ Virginia +6.6 144.5 73% 50–55 ✓
Tarleton State @ Baylor +14.0 157.4 90% 57–80 ✓
Jackson State @ TCU +17.3 143.6 94% 51–78 ✓
North Texas @ UT Arlington -6.9 107.1 27% 60–57 ✓
Bradley @ SIU Edwardsville +2.9 133.3 60% 56–54 ✗
Little Rock @ Memphis +26.1 151.3 99% 71–87 ✓
Green Bay @ Loyola Chicago +14.4 129.2 91% 46–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ Central Arkansas +1.6 131.9 56% 67–72 ✓
Kansas City @ Oklahoma +16.1 118.2 93% 53–75 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Kansas State +22.5 136.5 98% 64–81 ✓
Toledo @ Northern Iowa +1.3 161.4 55% 83–75 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Marquette +16.8 152.5 94% 78–90 ✓
Maryland @ Wisconsin -2.7 125.6 40% 59–64 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Wyoming +0.3 134.3 51% 76–91 ✓
Sam Houston @ Oklahoma State -1.2 129.9 46% 51–65 ✗
South Dakota State @ Montana +0.2 133.6 51% 56–81 ✓
North Dakota @ Idaho +8.3 136.2 77% 66–76 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ San José State +4.6 120.8 66% 48–58 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Pacific +12.2 159.9 87% 73–69 ✗
Iowa @ Duke +0.6 146.1 52% 62–74 ✓
Nevada @ Pepperdine +0.6 141.3 52% 85–77 ✗
DePaul @ St. John's +11.4 164.0 85% 67–86 ✓
Siena @ Georgetown +3.0 150.2 61% 68–75 ✓
Michigan State @ Penn State +10.1 143.0 82% 67–58 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.