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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–15 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
47 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
@
Utah
|
+9.3 | 142.3 | 80% | 95–98 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Marshall
|
+9.7 | 160.5 | 81% | 72–68 | ✗ |
Texas A&M
@
Vanderbilt
|
+3.4 | 133.0 | 62% | 68–79 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
+6.9 | 125.0 | 73% | 77–85 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Monmouth
|
+9.2 | 149.2 | 80% | 79–60 | ✗ |
Bucknell
@
Colgate
|
+22.6 | 157.0 | 98% | 75–105 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Lamar
|
+2.9 | 147.6 | 60% | 52–62 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Providence
|
+6.8 | 134.4 | 73% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
North Carolina
|
+4.4 | 149.4 | 66% | 59–101 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Penn State
|
+7.2 | 146.2 | 74% | 66–72 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Oklahoma
|
+13.9 | 142.1 | 90% | 73–79 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Florida Atlantic
|
-2.6 | 138.7 | 41% | 70–76 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+28.7 | 140.5 | 100% | 64–91 | ✓ |
California
@
Stanford
|
+7.7 | 133.8 | 76% | 76–58 | ✗ |
Middle Tennessee
@
North Texas
|
+15.8 | 124.5 | 92% | 56–76 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Toledo
|
+9.5 | 154.9 | 81% | 89–91 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
West Virginia
|
+2.4 | 155.6 | 59% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Maryland
|
+4.0 | 132.0 | 64% | 57–68 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Virginia
|
+4.0 | 132.0 | 64% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Villanova
|
+8.9 | 142.7 | 79% | 72–71 | ✗ |
Temple
@
South Florida
|
-3.9 | 133.4 | 36% | 71–73 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Kentucky
|
+1.9 | 133.2 | 57% | 74–73 | ✗ |
Northern Colorado
@
Southern Utah
|
+7.5 | 146.6 | 75% | 83–91 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Kent State
|
+0.5 | 152.6 | 52% | 85–63 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+16.1 | 145.7 | 93% | 87–95 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Ohio State
|
+8.3 | 151.1 | 77% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Oregon
|
+8.4 | 152.6 | 78% | 73–91 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Florida
|
+7.7 | 143.8 | 76% | 63–69 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Baylor
|
+22.8 | 139.2 | 98% | 68–74 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Georgia Tech
|
+10.4 | 142.5 | 83% | 66–70 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
San Diego State
|
+15.8 | 147.7 | 93% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
St. John's
|
-1.8 | 156.5 | 44% | 77–69 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Tulsa
|
+2.9 | 123.3 | 60% | 77–70 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Texas Southern
|
+8.4 | 147.9 | 78% | 55–78 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Idaho State
|
-1.6 | 129.7 | 44% | 71–63 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Buffalo
|
+8.6 | 152.2 | 78% | 63–74 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Saint Peter's
|
+6.0 | 130.3 | 71% | 60–75 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
UC Davis
|
-5.4 | 136.9 | 31% | 56–58 | ✗ |
Oregon State
@
UCLA
|
+6.0 | 136.2 | 71% | 83–79 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Boise State
|
+5.4 | 146.1 | 69% | 89–82 | ✗ |
Butler
@
Creighton
|
+10.9 | 138.3 | 84% | 56–87 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Florida A&M
|
-5.2 | 139.2 | 32% | 77–75 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Northwestern State
|
-3.2 | 158.5 | 39% | 79–82 | ✗ |
Oklahoma
@
Kansas
|
+4.8 | 139.0 | 67% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Florida State
|
+3.3 | 156.9 | 62% | 0–1 | ✓ |
UTSA
@
Western Kentucky
|
+4.9 | 152.9 | 67% | 67–80 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Rutgers
|
+1.1 | 135.1 | 54% | 50–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.