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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–11 on winners spread MAE 8.5 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
East Carolina @ UCF +4.3 134.0 65% 62–72 ✓
Rice @ UAB +8.5 140.2 78% 60–73 ✓
Georgia @ Missouri +5.4 157.2 69% 70–73 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron +1.3 154.9 55% 67–74 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist +1.0 153.0 53% 83–66 ✗
Niagara @ Marist -0.9 122.6 47% 67–62 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +15.9 150.3 93% 60–66 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +16.9 124.7 94% 51–58 ✓
Utah @ USC +7.6 138.7 76% 85–91 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech -2.4 140.7 41% 81–73 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +11.6 133.2 85% 60–94 ✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin +3.6 137.4 63% 74–75 ✓
Lamar @ Sam Houston +9.6 140.6 81% 70–69 ✗
UNLV @ Utah State +11.1 134.9 84% 53–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State +6.7 136.4 73% 58–87 ✓
Texas Tech @ Texas -1.6 139.2 44% 66–67 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech +7.6 138.7 76% 69–75 ✓
Southern @ Grambling -2.1 138.9 42% 67–72 ✗
South Carolina @ Ole Miss +7.4 139.7 75% 59–76 ✓
North Texas @ Old Dominion -7.0 127.3 26% 61–55 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ New Mexico State +7.1 129.8 74% 61–77 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +6.8 143.8 73% 80–75 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside +6.8 136.2 73% 52–62 ✓
California @ Colorado +14.2 130.9 90% 58–61 ✓
Fresno State @ Colorado State +12.0 135.2 86% 62–72 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan +6.9 133.8 73% 66–79 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +8.3 142.7 77% 48–85 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +9.9 142.3 82% 67–68 ✓
UAB @ Western Kentucky -1.6 134.9 44% 60–64 ✗
Ohio State @ Purdue -1.6 142.2 44% 87–78 ✓
Florida @ Tennessee +2.4 132.4 59% 66–78 ✓
Cincinnati @ SMU +7.1 145.9 74% 74–71 ✗
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech -0.7 128.0 47% 54–48 ✓
Texas Southern @ Jackson State -2.0 131.8 43% 84–81 ✓
Ohio @ Toledo +3.3 158.8 62% 87–80 ✗
Iona @ Niagara -4.8 131.3 33% 70–64 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +3.0 142.5 61% 66–58 ✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State -5.7 157.3 30% 82–61 ✓
Northwestern State @ Nicholls +8.7 156.8 78% 76–88 ✓
Rutgers @ Illinois +8.2 142.1 77% 68–90 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +10.8 155.8 84% 83–74 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +3.7 131.7 63% 1–0 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.