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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–11 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tulane
@
Houston
|
+18.3 | 128.7 | 95% | 52–77 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Southern Utah
|
+6.7 | 154.2 | 73% | 80–77 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Buffalo
|
+4.2 | 155.8 | 65% | 74–81 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Grand Canyon
|
+6.9 | 131.9 | 74% | 47–81 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Saint Peter's
|
+6.7 | 120.9 | 73% | 52–47 | ✗ |
North Carolina
@
Florida State
|
+1.6 | 154.2 | 56% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Oregon
|
+7.0 | 138.2 | 74% | 75–64 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Iowa
|
+4.6 | 148.7 | 66% | 57–62 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Creighton
|
+1.0 | 145.8 | 54% | 56–59 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-8.0 | 145.7 | 23% | 1–0 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
LSU
|
+2.7 | 144.0 | 60% | 73–76 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Abilene Christian
|
+16.4 | 132.1 | 93% | 71–93 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+11.9 | 139.1 | 86% | 55–71 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Kansas
|
+3.4 | 140.5 | 62% | 1–0 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
San Diego State
|
+8.2 | 139.2 | 77% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+6.3 | 134.2 | 72% | 63–75 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Arkansas
|
+5.6 | 153.3 | 69% | 64–70 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Memphis
|
+5.7 | 135.0 | 70% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Eastern Washington
|
+5.1 | 146.5 | 68% | 50–78 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Utah Valley
|
-2.4 | 139.6 | 41% | 78–62 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
USC
|
-0.2 | 135.9 | 49% | 72–70 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
UC Irvine
|
-1.4 | 126.0 | 45% | 61–78 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Utah State
|
+2.0 | 137.5 | 57% | 50–62 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Hartford
|
+3.8 | 135.8 | 63% | 50–64 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Michigan
|
+3.4 | 147.0 | 62% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Tennessee
@
Alabama
|
+1.6 | 139.8 | 56% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Norfolk State
|
-0.1 | 149.0 | 50% | 63–71 | ✗ |
Cincinnati
@
Wichita State
|
+4.2 | 148.3 | 65% | 60–59 | ✗ |
|
LSU
@
Arkansas
|
+2.4 | 166.5 | 59% | 78–71 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Illinois
|
+0.9 | 163.9 | 53% | 71–82 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Fairfield
|
-9.7 | 132.6 | 19% | 60–51 | ✓ |
|
Memphis
@
Houston
|
+9.9 | 132.3 | 82% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Texas
|
+1.6 | 150.0 | 56% | 86–91 | ✓ |
|
Utah State
@
San Diego State
|
+2.5 | 130.5 | 59% | 57–68 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+1.1 | 141.6 | 54% | 80–61 | ✗ |
Georgetown
@
Creighton
|
+8.3 | 149.3 | 77% | 73–48 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.