Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -125 MORG +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -0.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.3 (+7.7) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -0.6 (+8.6) | 143.2 (-9.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -0.7 (+8.7) | 146.5 (-12.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -0.3 (+7.7) | 143.5 (-9.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Game Analysis
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