Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -163 AKR +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -4.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -4.4 (+2.6) | 151.6 (+3.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.6 (+4.4) | 152.2 (+2.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -2.6 (+4.4) | 154.2 (+0.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -3.9 (+3.1) | 151.6 (+3.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-1 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#61) | 4.2 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#121) | 0.58 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#103) | 0.74 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#126) | 0.538 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 43.9 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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