Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -225 MIZ +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -5.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.1 (+0.9) | 152.6 (-18.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.6 (+1.4) | 150.1 (-16.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -4.2 (+1.8) | 153.2 (-19.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.3 (+0.7) | 149.7 (-15.7) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#9) | 10.5 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#11) | 2.33 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#16) | 2.67 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#15) | 0.607 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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