Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -250 FAIR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +5 | 99 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -6.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -3.7 (-8.7) | 126.3 (-27.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -3.7 (-8.7) | 124.3 (-25.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -4.3 (-9.3) | 126.6 (-27.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.3 (-9.3) | 125.8 (-26.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#190) | -8.1 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#176) | -0.96 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#173) | -1.19 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#149) | 0.456 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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