Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | PV -275 GRAM +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PV -6.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -5.6 (+6.4) | 134.6 (+3.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -4.9 (+7.1) | 135.2 (+2.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -5.9 (+6.1) | 137.0 (+1.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -5.3 (+6.7) | 132.2 (+5.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | PV 68 – 63 GRAM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GRAM 76 – 72 PV |
| Feb 18, 2025 | GRAM 70 – 48 PV |
| Jan 4, 2025 | PV 73 – 55 GRAM |
| Feb 20, 2024 | GRAM 83 – 74 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 9-6 |
| Home | 8-0 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#241) | -10.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#127) | -1.33 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#180) | -2.15 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#100) | 0.470 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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