Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | USU -200 CSU +168 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +12 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | USU -2.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -1.3 (+10.7) | 135.7 (-23.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.3 (+9.7) | 134.8 (-22.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.3 (+9.7) | 134.0 (-22.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.8 (+10.2) | 134.6 (-22.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#37) | 9.2 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#56) | 2.09 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#66) | 2.22 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#38) | 0.585 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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