Memphis
Tigers
70
–
62
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
UCF
Knights
Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -275 UCF +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -6.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -4.9 (+3.1) | 134.7 (-2.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -4.9 (+3.1) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -4.2 (+3.8) | 135.8 (-3.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -4.7 (+3.3) | 134.1 (-2.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2023 | MEM 81 – 76 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MEM 64 – 63 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UCF 107 – 104 MEM |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 85 – 69 UCF |
| Feb 6, 2022 | MEM 88 – 60 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#46) | 4.3 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#53) | 1.22 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#48) | 1.61 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#51) | 0.562 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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