Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PV -138 TXSO +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +19 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -0.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.7 (-19.7) | 141.6 (-0.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -0.4 (-19.4) | 142.4 (-1.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -0.8 (-19.8) | 143.2 (-2.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.2 (-19.2) | 142.4 (-1.4) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PV 70 – 59 TXSO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PV 85 – 78 TXSO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 68 PV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TXSO 79 – 63 PV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXSO 93 – 78 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 10-3 |
| Home | 8-0 | 8-2 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#241) | -4.9 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#127) | 0.03 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#180) | -0.74 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#100) | 0.532 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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