Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -138 IOWA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -1.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -1.1 (+9.9) | 156.2 (-3.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.4 (+10.6) | 152.7 (+0.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.9 (+10.1) | 154.9 (-1.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -0.3 (+11.3) | 152.7 (+0.3) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 83.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#3) | 19.9 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#5) | 3.02 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.52 (#4) | 4.17 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#12) | 0.578 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 2.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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