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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio
@
Buffalo
|
+2.6 | 159.9 | 59% | 84–69 | ✗ |
Montana State
@
Eastern Washington
|
+8.6 | 154.2 | 78% | 55–65 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Florida State
|
+3.8 | 154.5 | 64% | 80–75 | ✗ |
North Texas
@
Western Kentucky
|
-2.7 | 128.8 | 40% | 61–57 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Nicholls
|
-9.3 | 145.5 | 20% | 79–45 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+3.2 | 126.0 | 62% | 56–74 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Colorado
|
+9.5 | 134.1 | 81% | 70–68 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+3.3 | 128.7 | 62% | 63–79 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Colgate
|
+18.5 | 150.7 | 95% | 72–85 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Alabama
|
+4.1 | 163.0 | 64% | 79–80 | ✓ |
VCU
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+2.8 | 128.2 | 60% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Houston
|
+16.1 | 138.4 | 93% | 54–91 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Illinois
|
+4.2 | 154.1 | 65% | 88–91 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.