Houston
Cougars
91
–
54
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati
Bearcats
Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1000 CIN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +37 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -15.6 (+21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -14.1 (+22.9) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -14.0 (+23.0) | 133.0 (+12.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -15.0 (+22.0) | 137.4 (+7.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -14.7 (+22.3) | 137.2 (+7.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#6) | 3.3 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#9) | 1.19 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#10) | 1.19 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#2) | 0.542 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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