Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -163 VCU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -2.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -2.4 (+6.6) | 128.3 (+10.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -2.3 (+6.7) | 127.2 (+11.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -2.6 (+6.4) | 128.6 (+10.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -2.3 (+6.7) | 128.3 (+10.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | VCU 89 – 82 SBU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | VCU 76 – 59 SBU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | VCU 75 – 61 SBU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SBU 77 – 75 VCU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | SBU 67 – 62 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 19-7 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Home | 8-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#30) | 10.9 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#40) | 2.07 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#36) | 2.61 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#24) | 0.597 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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