Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -250 OSU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +3 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -5.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -4.4 (-1.4) | 151.5 (+27.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.6 (-0.6) | 146.0 (+33.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -3.5 (-0.5) | 149.0 (+30.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.2 (-1.2) | 148.7 (+30.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 21.4 (#2) | 16.4 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#4) | 3.02 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.64 (#3) | 4.05 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#9) | 0.598 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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