Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -138 OHIO +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +15 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -2.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -1.9 (-16.9) | 156.4 (-3.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -1.8 (-16.8) | 154.6 (-1.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -1.3 (-16.3) | 156.6 (-3.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -1.8 (-16.8) | 155.8 (-2.8) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 17-8 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#60) | 6.1 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#113) | 0.73 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#100) | 0.77 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#115) | 0.530 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 44.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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