Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -225 LSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +1 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -4.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.5 (-2.5) | 155.8 (+3.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.3 (-1.3) | 155.8 (+3.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.7 (-1.7) | 156.0 (+3.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.0 (-2.0) | 152.9 (+6.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 19-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#7) | 13.7 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#11) | 2.29 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#11) | 2.85 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#4) | 0.594 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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