Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -333 NEV +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -8.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -7.9 (-0.9) | 137.7 (+9.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -6.3 (+0.7) | 133.9 (+13.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -7.1 (-0.1) | 136.7 (+10.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -7.3 (-0.3) | 137.5 (+9.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 57 NEV |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 68 NEV |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SDSU 80 – 61 NEV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 50 NEV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NEV 70 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#27) | 5.3 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#18) | 1.13 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#29) | 1.26 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#8) | 0.543 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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