Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -600 UCD +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -11.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -8.9 (+7.1) | 137.0 (-11.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -8.0 (+8.0) | 132.6 (-6.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -9.2 (+6.8) | 136.6 (-10.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -9.0 (+7.0) | 135.8 (-9.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-5 | 10-8 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 6-4 |
| Home | 11-0 | 4-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#80) | -4.5 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#60) | -0.16 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#75) | -0.51 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#36) | 0.497 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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