Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -150 TENN +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -2.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -2.9 (+2.1) | 136.8 (+4.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -1.5 (+3.5) | 135.1 (+5.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.2 (+2.8) | 140.3 (+0.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.1 (+1.9) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALA 71 – 69 TENN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | TENN 79 – 73 ALA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TENN 79 – 76 ALA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | TENN 81 – 74 ALA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TENN 91 – 71 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 18-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#7) | 15.4 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#14) | 2.29 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#12) | 2.94 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#6) | 0.573 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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