Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -120 USU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -2.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -1.8 (+9.2) | 128.5 (-3.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -1.0 (+10.0) | 126.8 (-1.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -2.1 (+8.9) | 127.7 (-2.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -1.6 (+9.4) | 123.8 (+1.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 15-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#27) | 11.2 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#18) | 1.68 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#29) | 1.93 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#8) | 0.580 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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