Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -138 UNC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -0.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -0.3 (+2.7) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -0.3 (+2.7) | 141.8 (-6.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.8 (+3.8) | 143.9 (-8.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -0.3 (+2.7) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 10-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#18) | 13.6 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#20) | 2.15 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#24) | 2.84 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#35) | 0.586 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 15.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 41.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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