Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -150 LSU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -3.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -3.2 (-10.2) | 161.2 (-12.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.1 (-9.1) | 159.4 (-10.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.1 (-9.1) | 160.4 (-11.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -3.2 (-10.2) | 160.6 (-11.6) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 19-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#9) | 13.4 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#11) | 2.08 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#16) | 2.67 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#15) | 0.588 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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