In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–13 on winners spread MAE 10.0 28 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Elon @ Drexel +3.2 129.1 61% 56–63 ✓
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame +7.6 141.6 75% 77–80 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Bryant +7.4 136.0 75% 73–68 ✗
Oakland @ Cleveland State +4.2 147.2 65% 69–80 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield -1.6 128.7 44% 58–59 ✗
Southern Miss @ Rice +2.8 141.3 60% 52–61 ✓
BYU @ Gonzaga +10.7 162.1 83% 78–88 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +0.5 146.8 52% 75–72 ✗
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +1.1 144.8 54% 80–68 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton +9.4 143.0 80% 87–82 ✗
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado -0.2 135.0 49% 83–90 ✗
NC State @ Syracuse +1.5 147.7 55% 68–89 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +8.3 130.8 78% 77–66 ✗
San José State @ Wyoming +12.9 161.1 88% 80–111 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +9.5 124.6 81% 67–64 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown -1.4 143.2 45% 49–68 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +11.1 128.4 84% 62–74 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State -1.3 148.6 45% 59–64 ✗
Air Force @ UNLV +9.5 128.5 81% 52–80 ✓
Iona @ Siena -1.0 134.8 46% 55–52 ✓
Idaho @ Montana +15.4 132.7 92% 64–69 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Army +5.8 136.3 70% 67–63 ✗
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans +5.5 151.8 69% 63–80 ✓
Butler @ Xavier +6.3 132.5 72% 70–69 ✗
Kansas State @ TCU +4.1 129.3 65% 71–50 ✗
Charlotte @ UTSA +3.7 140.8 63% 62–72 ✓
Duke @ Louisville -2.0 142.5 43% 70–56 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern -0.7 146.8 48% 51–46 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.