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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–5 on winners
spread MAE 11.0
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rider
@
Canisius
|
+5.3 | 147.3 | 69% | 78–76 | ✗ |
App State
@
Georgia State
|
+5.4 | 146.8 | 69% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Mercer
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+2.3 | 142.4 | 58% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Gonzaga
|
+16.1 | 141.7 | 93% | 55–78 | ✓ |
Drexel
@
Northeastern
|
-0.6 | 128.8 | 48% | 74–67 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Oakland
|
-3.0 | 153.4 | 39% | 58–69 | ✗ |
North Dakota State
@
South Dakota
|
-0.8 | 139.0 | 47% | 79–75 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
BYU
|
+11.4 | 151.9 | 85% | 77–82 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Pittsburgh
|
+6.0 | 137.8 | 71% | 79–73 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
Duke
|
+9.5 | 158.3 | 81% | 51–86 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Quinnipiac
|
-5.7 | 141.1 | 30% | 72–48 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
SE Louisiana
|
+0.8 | 146.4 | 53% | 68–71 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Cal State Northridge
|
+1.0 | 161.8 | 54% | 85–63 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.