Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -200 MER +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -1.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.4 (+5.6) | 143.1 (-13.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.3 (+5.7) | 140.1 (-10.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.6 (+5.4) | 144.1 (-14.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.6 (+5.4) | 143.9 (-13.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#90) | 3.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#88) | 0.68 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#88) | 0.78 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#56) | 0.535 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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