Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -138 MIA +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +6 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -6.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -5.1 (-11.1) | 136.7 (+15.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -4.7 (-10.7) | 136.6 (+15.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -5.2 (-11.2) | 136.3 (+15.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -5.1 (-11.1) | 135.4 (+16.6) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MIA 76 – 69 PITT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PITT 74 – 65 MIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MIA 72 – 68 PITT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIA 78 – 76 PITT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | PITT 71 – 68 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 4-15 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-5 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#87) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#105) | 0.04 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#92) | 0.08 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#167) | 0.463 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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