Georgia State
Panthers
73
–
80
FINAL
Neutral
Sun Belt Conference Championship
App State
Mountaineers
Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -275 APP +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -4.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -3.9 (-10.9) | 143.0 (+10.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -3.4 (-10.4) | 142.1 (+10.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -3.3 (-10.3) | 143.3 (+9.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -3.9 (-10.9) | 141.5 (+11.5) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
Game Analysis
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