Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +150 NDSU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -0.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -0.3 (-3.7) | 142.4 (+11.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -1.0 (-3.0) | 138.2 (+15.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -0.5 (-3.5) | 143.6 (+10.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -0.2 (-3.8) | 143.2 (+10.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 11-5 |
| Home | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#168) | 0.2 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#218) | -0.45 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#219) | -0.53 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#202) | 0.493 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 80.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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