Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -900 BC +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +35 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -8.9 (+26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -7.7 (+27.3) | 154.0 (-17.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -7.1 (+27.9) | 150.1 (-13.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.2 (+26.8) | 153.3 (-16.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -7.6 (+27.4) | 154.3 (-17.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | DUKE 67 – 49 BC |
| Jan 19, 2025 | DUKE 88 – 63 BC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | DUKE 80 – 65 BC |
| Jan 7, 2023 | DUKE 65 – 64 BC |
| Dec 3, 2022 | DUKE 75 – 59 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 4-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 3-5 |
| Away | 3-6 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#58) | 0.5 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#77) | -0.46 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#66) | -0.15 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#112) | 0.433 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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