Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -250 BTLR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -6.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -4.8 (-5.8) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -3.4 (-4.4) | 131.5 (+7.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -4.8 (-5.8) | 132.9 (+6.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.4 (-5.4) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#56) | 3.3 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#51) | 0.91 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#55) | 1.35 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#64) | 0.475 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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