Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +150 MAN -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +1 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -1.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -0.5 (+1.5) | 130.6 (-13.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -1.3 (+2.3) | 128.1 (-11.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.7 (+1.7) | 130.6 (-13.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -0.7 (+1.7) | 131.0 (-14.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 7-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#301) | -8.0 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#265) | -1.05 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#263) | -1.45 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#284) | 0.437 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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