Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -700 AF +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +28 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -9.8 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -7.9 (+20.1) | 128.9 (+3.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -8.7 (+19.3) | 123.1 (+8.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -8.3 (+19.7) | 127.9 (+4.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -7.9 (+20.1) | 128.5 (+3.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#187) | -11.3 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#180) | -1.48 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#193) | -1.98 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#188) | 0.419 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 23.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 4.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 15.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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