Notre Dame
Fighting Irish
80
–
77
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
New York Life ACC
Wake Forest
Demon Deacons
Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ND -400 WAKE +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ND -7.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -7.2 (-4.2) | 139.9 (+17.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -4.9 (-1.9) | 136.2 (+20.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -6.8 (-3.8) | 139.6 (+17.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -6.4 (-3.4) | 140.1 (+16.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | WAKE 74 – 71 ND |
| Mar 13, 2024 | WAKE 72 – 59 ND |
| Feb 28, 2024 | ND 70 – 65 WAKE |
| Feb 26, 2023 | WAKE 66 – 58 ND |
| Feb 4, 2023 | WAKE 81 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#78) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#99) | -0.25 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#89) | -0.21 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#133) | 0.446 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.