Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +160 DUKE -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +14 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -1.6 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -1.2 (-12.8) | 141.4 (-15.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -1.5 (-12.5) | 136.8 (-10.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -0.7 (-13.3) | 140.0 (-14.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -1.2 (-12.8) | 142.3 (-16.3) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#62) | 10.4 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#40) | 1.27 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#48) | 1.96 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#34) | 0.537 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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