Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA -200 CLT +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -3.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -4.1 (+5.9) | 139.4 (-5.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -3.3 (+6.7) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -3.9 (+6.1) | 139.7 (-5.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -3.8 (+6.2) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UTSA 88 – 79 CLT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CLT 74 – 58 UTSA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UTSA 83 – 80 CLT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | CLT 79 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | CLT 66 – 58 UTSA |
Game Analysis
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