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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–17 on winners spread MAE 10.6 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Gardner-Webb @ Wofford	+2.0	139.8	58%	64–88	✓
Morehead State @ Marshall	+9.6	140.9	84%	77–80	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Campbell	+3.0	129.5	64%	58–57	✗
Illinois State @ Belmont	+6.8	149.2	79%	97–99	✓
Coppin State @ Wagner	+10.2	121.3	80%	52–65	✓
Furman @ Florida Gulf Coast	+0.9	133.3	41%	76–73	✗
Bellarmine @ Western Carolina	+5.8	144.4	68%	74–86	✓
Monmouth @ Lehigh	+1.5	144.1	54%	63–90	✓
Cornell @ Colgate	+1.2	150.0	55%	84–57	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Bucknell	-7.3	137.7	25%	64–47	✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts	+6.9	135.6	75%	73–69	✗
George Washington @ American University	-2.7	141.8	40%	71–81	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham	+11.3	152.1	86%	75–84	✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris	+4.3	138.1	59%	72–58	✗
Tennessee Tech @ North Alabama	+6.0	151.0	80%	59–82	✓
Rider @ Fairfield	-0.5	130.7	51%	75–78	✗
Georgia Southern @ VCU	+17.3	142.9	88%	54–89	✓
Alabama @ North Carolina	+2.6	173.1	48%	94–79	✗
Virginia @ Florida	+14.9	135.0	86%	69–87	✓
Alcorn State @ Wichita State	+17.5	140.4	90%	54–78	✓
Marquette @ Iowa State	+4.5	149.3	66%	70–81	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Memphis	+10.2	150.5	85%	71–81	✓
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa	-2.5	152.8	33%	76–55	✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC	+1.1	147.8	60%	83–56	✗
Central Arkansas @ Little Rock	+11.3	139.3	86%	57–63	✓
Montana State @ Omaha	-4.0	140.8	33%	76–65	✓
Idaho State @ South Dakota	+0.9	150.5	54%	80–94	✓
Northern Arizona @ Oral Roberts	+1.6	141.9	54%	76–83	✓
Idaho @ Kansas City	+2.8	136.2	53%	82–77	✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Northern Colorado	+3.7	156.5	68%	87–75	✗
Michigan State @ Minnesota	-3.7	131.3	28%	90–72	✓
NJIT @ Seton Hall	+16.4	127.1	88%	56–67	✓
Kansas @ Creighton	-3.7	146.0	44%	63–76	✗
Abilene Christian @ New Mexico State	+1.9	135.1	52%	78–70	✗
Wyoming @ Utah State	+16.0	143.9	90%	67–70	✓
San José State @ New Mexico	+18.8	148.6	88%	77–83	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Colorado State	+8.0	141.5	78%	54–83	✓
Sacramento State @ Denver	-0.6	136.1	53%	59–80	✗
South Dakota State @ Montana	+0.5	149.0	57%	67–71	✓
North Dakota State @ Weber State	+3.3	147.7	62%	77–73	✗
North Dakota @ Eastern Washington	+9.8	144.7	82%	81–87	✓
Pittsburgh @ Mississippi State	+2.0	151.4	62%	57–90	✓
Texas @ NC State	+1.7	139.0	62%	63–59	✗
Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech	-2.1	139.5	39%	80–64	✓
DePaul @ Texas Tech	+13.3	149.7	86%	62–76	✓
Auburn @ Duke	+7.0	138.8	66%	78–84	✓
Portland State @ Seattle U	+13.0	148.2	87%	74–91	✓
Oregon @ USC	-7.2	142.9	23%	68–60	✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State	-8.6	146.5	22%	84–62	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lipscomb	+13.6	148.3	89%	60–78	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy	-6.1	147.7	30%	78–79	✗
Alabama State @ Southern Miss	+0.8	152.6	61%	64–81	✓
Purdue @ Penn State	+5.4	147.5	72%	70–81	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.