Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | LIP -3000 SEMO +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -14.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -13.6 (+4.4) | 148.3 (-10.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -13.8 (+4.2) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -13.8 (+4.2) | 143.3 (-5.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -13.5 (+4.5) | 145.8 (-7.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | LIP 88 – 77 SEMO |
| Dec 10, 2020 | LIP 80 – 74 SEMO |
| Dec 8, 2020 | SEMO 82 – 77 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#87) | -4.2 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#156) | -1.13 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#121) | -1.56 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#169) | 0.432 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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