Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -9.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -5.8 (-0.8) | 141.9 (+17.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -5.7 (-0.7) | 143.0 (+16.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -5.3 (-0.3) | 145.2 (+13.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | LIP 88 – 77 SEMO |
| Dec 5, 2024 | LIP 78 – 60 SEMO |
| Dec 10, 2020 | LIP 80 – 74 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#198) | -5.2 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#207) | -0.64 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#217) | -1.10 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.229 (#282) | 0.447 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 5.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 15.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 84.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.2% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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